Championship promotion battle: Supercomputer makes new prediction after Wrexham and Birmingham City latest

The race for promotion in the Championship has taken another twist this weekend as multiple teams eye the playoffs.

With Coventry City all but certain to finish top, the race is on to finish second and inside the top six.

Middlesbrough massively boosted their automatic hopes with a 3-1 victory over Birmingham on Monday, while damaging the latter’s playoff hopes.

Wrexham also cemented their place in the top six with a 1-0 win over Charlton on Saturday.

Now, Football Insider has looked at Opta predictions for how the Championship season will end.

The four-point gap to third is restored as @Boro get back to winning ways! 👊#EFL | #SkyBetChampionship https://t.co/ccOSw6beQQ pic.twitter.com/tqBWJVCVAJ— Sky Bet Championship (@SkyBetChamp) March 2, 2026

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Wrexham remain favourites for sixth-place finish

As it stands, the race for the Championship playoffs is extremely tight.

Four teams are separated by six points between sixth and ninth, with each one winning over the course of the game week.

As a result, Wrexham remain the favourites to finish sixth, with Opta on 2 March giving them a 55.38 per cent chance of finishing in the playoffs.

Southampton follow with a 31.64 per cent chance, being the only other side outside the current top six with reasonable odds.

🇸🇰 Strelec seals the points in style for @Boro! 👊#EFL | #SkyBetChampionship pic.twitter.com/AzTdSh5QRi— Sky Bet Championship (@SkyBetChamp) March 2, 2026

After Birmingham’s back-to-back defeats, they have just a 3.76 per cent chance of reaching the playoffs, making their odds of promotion this season highly unlikely.

Bristol City’s defeat to Watford has also made their playoff hopes extremely unlikely, with them now sitting at 3.50 per cent going into the final matches of the campaign.

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Who are the favourites to finish in the top two?

Unsurprisingly, Coventry are almost guaranteed to go up according to the supercomputer, with a 95.44 per cent chance of promotion.

Middlesbrough follow with a 51.24 per cent chance, with their victory over Birmingham giving them a substantial boost.

Ipswich Town are yet to be ruled out, with a 36.90 per cent chance of a top two finish as they continue to put pressure on Boro.

Despite Millwall currently being third in the Championship and well in form, their odds are extremely low, at just 9.68 per cent. Therefore, Opta simply does not believe the Lions have any chance of a top-two finish.

However, it remains to be seen who gets promoted, with plenty of twists and turns expected in the final 11 matches of the season.

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