Champions League race: Opta updates predictions after Aston Villa and Newcastle results

The race for Champions League qualification is heating up in the Premier League, with several sides pushing to get the final spot.

Aston Villa took a massive step toward reaching this goal on Saturday with a 2-0 victory over West Ham.

However, Newcastle United’s European hopes perhaps suffered the biggest blow yet as they lost 2-1 to Sunderland in the Tyne-Wear derby.

As a result, Opta on 22 March has updated its predictions on who it thinks will qualify for the Champions League.

Below, Football Insider has examined the data to see who is currently winning the race after Villa’s impressive victory.

Aston Villa now heavy favourites to secure Champions League football

Aston Villa had stuttered in the Premier League going into the West Ham match.

Unai Emery’s side had lost their last three matches in the division before they comfortably overcame the Hammers.

As a result, they have remained fourth, five points off Liverpool in fifth, and six off Chelsea in sixth.

Therefore, Opta believes that the Birmingham outfit has a 75.86 per cent chance of securing qualification to the Champions League.

In comparison, Newcastle’s chances remain highly weak. The Magpies have just a 0.06 per cent chance of returning to the competition for a second consecutive season.

On top of this Europa League qualification looks unlikely at 0.54 per cent.

It remains to be seen if England being awarded an extra Champions League place will boost any of these odds. However, at present, it looks inevitable that the Magpies will have another campaign outside of Europe.

Will Champions League qualification ensure Unai Emery stays at Aston Villa?

Previously, Football Insider has exclusively revealed that Emery could leave Aston Villa in the summer.

The 54-year-old manager had been becoming unsettled at Villa Park due to the financial restrictions surrounding the club.

However, it is unclear if Champions League football would convince him to stay at the club for another season.

2-0 🆚 Lille
2-0 🆚 West Ham

BIG week ✅ pic.twitter.com/Q8LQLeeOJ8— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) March 22, 2026

Last year, Villa narrowly missed out on qualification on the final day after a shock defeat to Manchester United.

On top of this, the club could still win the Europa League, with Villa being the overwhelming favourites for the competition as they prepare for the quarter-finals after the international break.

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