Europa League: Opta predicts new winner after Nottingham Forest beat Aston Villa

The Europa League edged closer to its conclusion this season as the final four teams played the first leg of their semi-finals.

Nottingham Forest narrowly beat Aston Villa 1-0 at the City Ground, while Sporting Braga used their home advantage to earn a 2-1 victory over Freiburg.

The result in England was perhaps the biggest shock so far, with Unai Emery’s men being comfortable favourites to win the tournament, let alone the tie going into the game.

While all teams still have a great chance of getting into the final, Opta on 30 April no longer believes that Villa are the favourites, instead backing Forest.

Forest’s narrow victory could prove to be the difference at Villa Park next week, and now they will be eyeing the trophy.

Nottingham Forest now favourites to win the Europa League

Given the issues Forest have had in the Premier League this season, few would have backed them to go this far in the Europa League.

The club are now on their fourth manager of the season, and could still be relegated to the Championship.

Yet, they are now two games away from a major trophy and Champions League football thanks to a gutsy performance against Villa.

Now, Opta have insisted that Forest have a 32.95 per cent chance of winning the tournament, believing they have a 57.70 per cent chance of reaching the final.

“We can only control what we can control” 🤷‍♂️

Morgan Gibbs-White admits he’ll be watching Aston Villa-Tottenham this weekend, but insists they can only do their own job against Chelsea on Monday.

📺 @tntsports on HBO Max pic.twitter.com/cuSkxPPu3z— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) April 30, 2026

Villa have now become the second favourites at 27.51 per cent, with the club still possessing a big chance to turn the result on its head.

The supercomputer believes Braga have a 25.95 per cent chance of winning the cup, while Freiburg’s sit at just 13.59 per cent.

How much could Nottingham Forest earn from winning the Europa League?

Former Manchester City financial adviser Stefan Borson exclusively told Football Insider that Nottingham Forest could earn an extra £15million from winning the Europa League.

The club has already earned £25m overall for reaching the semi-finals of the competition, heavily boosting their finances.

On top of this, with Champions League football also awarded to the winner, Forest would earn millions more the following season, depending on how far they progressed.

However, it remains to be seen if the club can hold their nerve and go all the way, with a tricky test at Villa Park on the horizon.

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