View: De Zerbi must ignore grim relegation omens at Tottenham ahead of Aston Villa trip

It was never going to be easy, but even by Tottenham Hotspur‘s standards, this is absurd.

Of course, they really only have themselves to blame for their current predicament, which sees them two points adrift of Premier League safety with just four matches to go. However, they still have every right to let their heads drop for good after a wave of tragic luck.

Injuries to crucial players and misfortune during matches, largely born from the squad’s brittle confidence, have left them on the brink of oblivion. Even when they finished 17th last season, they never looked like being relegated. This time feels dangerously different.

Will they be able to get the points to stave off the Championship? Really, they would need at least another win to have any chance of keeping their dreams alive, but this has proven near-impossible throughout the campaign, having picked up only eight in the league since August.

On Sunday, Spurs travel to Aston Villa in search of a result that could reignite their fading hopes. They have no choice but to capitalise on West Ham’s 3-0 defeat by Brentford, and will be aiming to secure back-to-back top-flight wins since the opening eight days of the season.

Stats stacked firmly against Tottenham

The 1-0 triumph at already-relegated Wolves last time out showed it can be done. That result would have reminded the dressing room of the sweet sensation success can bring, and also united them around Roberto De Zerbi, who has worked so hard to lift their spirits.

Eeking out all three points at Molineux saw their 16-game domestic winless run finally come to an end. Now, it must act as a springboard for the daunting trip to Villa.

There is no more room for error. With the finish line no longer a distant dot on the horizon, West Ham tripped up, going down meekly at the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday. That left the door open for Spurs, who have often conspired to walk straight into it.

The Hammers had threatened to pull away, having picked up 11 points from their previous six matches before falling flat on their face against Brentford. In comparison, Spurs have picked up five from their last six. That shows why they are in such deep trouble.

Still, they will be thanking Nuno Espirito Santo. West Ham’s setback put Tottenham’s fate back into their own hands, starting with the showdown at Villa Park. That much has been represented in Opta Analyst‘s latest supercomputer predictions, with Spurs’ odds shifting.

Tottenham now have a 50.07 per cent chance of being relegated, a notable fall from the 60.22 per cent prior to Saturday’s matches. In comparison, West Ham’s chances have increased from 36.84 per cent to 48.84 per cent.

Who goes down will be decided by a coin toss.

Spurs are wounded, but they’re not out just yet. De Zerbi has made it very clear that he has no time for players feeling sorry for themselves. After the 2-2 draw with Brighton, he had declared anyone who reported for training without a smile would be sent back home.

His job has been made even harder by a series of obstacles, the lengthy list of absentees perhaps being the primary one. James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski have been restricted to a watching brief, while Xavi Simons has ruptured his ACL.

It is truly alarming that of all Spurs’ first-team players who have been at the club for the entirety of the campaign, only Mathys Tel has not missed a game through injury. That has seen the medical staff come under fire in recent weeks, particularly after Simons’ setback.

Last season, Spurs finished 17th under Ange Postecoglou with 38 points. Then, a record-low points total of 26 was all that was required to beat the drop. This time around, Tottenham will likely need just shy of 40 to get over the line – meaning they require at least another win.

That, of course, is easier said than done.

Gloomy pre-Villa omens for Spurs

According to Opta, Spurs have just a 19.1 per cent chance of beating Villa on Sunday, in comparison to the home side’s 59.9 per cent chance. A draw is estimated at 21 per cent.

It has been an unhappy hunting ground for clubs this season, but it will fall to Tottenham to find a way to grind out maximum points. Anything less, and the odds will truly be stacked against them. A defeat could well prove the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Ollie Watkins will certainly be counting on it, having scored goals in three previous top-flight fixtures against teams managed by De Zerbi. In September 2023, the striker bagged a hat-trick against Brighton. How the Italian will be desperately praying to avoid a repeat.

De Zerbi had set a target of winning all five of Spurs’ remaining fixtures. One down, four to go. He is staring directly in the face of history, though. No team in the relegation zone with five games remaining has ever gone on to win them all.

That encapsulates the bizarre situation they now find themselves in.

Tottenham are hoping to make history on one front while also looking to avoid being relegated for the first time since the 1970s. Dropping into the Championship doesn’t bear thinking about, but it’s now lurking menacingly in the wing mirrors.

That arguably makes the trip to Villa a make-or-break.

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