Champions League: Supercomputer predicts winner after Arsenal beat Sporting CP

The Champions League has reached its final four teams for the 2025-26 campaign after Arsenal and Bayern Munich got through on Wednesday.

The Gunners saw out a 1-0 victory over Sporting CP, while Bayern Munich survived a scare against Real Madrid to win 6-4 on aggregate.

They have now joined Paris Saint-Germain and Atletico Madrid in the semi-finals, with all teams now three games away from lifting the trophy.

With the draw already being made, Arsenal are set to face Atletico, while PSG will take on Bayern.

Below, Opta has tried to estimate who will win the competition after Arsenal’s recent result over Sporting CP.

Arsenal backed to win Champions League

Much has been said about Arsenal in recent weeks.

Their form has plummeted, which has seen them knocked out of the Carabao Cup and FA Cup, the former being in the final.

Yet, going into the final matches of the campaign, the Gunners could still win both the Premier League and Champions League.

Now, according to Opta on 15 April, Arsenal are the most likely to come out as the victors in Europe.

The supercomputer has given them a 38.58 per cent chance of lifting the trophy at the end of the season.

Champions League semi-finalists ✅#UCL pic.twitter.com/PnmthReimO— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) April 15, 2026

In comparison, Bayern Munich are seen as the second most likely at 33.34 per cent, followed by PSG at 19.10 per cent.

Atletico Madrid are viewed to have little chance of winning the Champions League this season at just 8.98 per cent ahead of their tie with Arsenal.

How much are Arsenal set to earn from the Champions League?

Football Insider has exclusively revealed that Arsenal have now earned more than £106million from the Champions League after reaching the semi-finals.

Their victory added another £13.1m to the bank, having previously earned £93m.

Much of this is also thanks to their success in the league phase, where they top the table, giving them passage into the round of 16.

On top of this, Arsenal could win millions more if they get into the final of the competition, or even manage to win it.

However, only time will tell if Arsenal are capable of finally lifting the trophy that has escaped them so far throughout their club’s history.

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